Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank do not come together. That pleases many financial experts. But the subject of fusion is not off the table – it is already being speculated about other partners.
Friends had the idea of the merger at the stock exchange and at the financial center Frankfurt few. For example, Oliver Roth, chief stockbroker at Oddo Seydler, has not been tired in recent weeks to stress:
„In no case go together, that’s my firm conviction, which makes little sense, neither for the financial center, nor for the employees, in the long run not for the shareholders.“
The share prices of both banks also expressed in recent weeks that investors were not convinced. The Commerzbank’s course did increase a bit after it became official that both banks are talking to each other. The share price of the Deutsche Bank but balks for weeks only to himself.
Well then the refusal: „It is an economically sensible step to say, you end this whole story,“ said Klaus Nieding of the German Protection Association for securities ownership: „I never understood why the policy – especially the Federal Finance Minister – said ‚We need a German Champion so that the German industry is well supported in their investment projects.‘
This could be the Deutsche Bank even without merger with Commerzbank, says Nieding:
„The national champion would not have been an international champion, so I’m very happy, because there are various options for both banks, for example finding a different partner within Europe, and I think that’s the right move.“
A question of time and money
A merger would have become much too complex, allegedly in recent days have also warned major shareholders of Deutsche Bank before. Including the financial investor Blackrock, the Emirate of Qatar and the Chinese group HNA. They feared a possible capital increase, meaning that they would have to re-raise money to maintain their influence.
Robert Halver of the Baader Bank explains why a merger would have been much too complex: „If you want to merge, then both houses, I’ll tell you, are occupied with themselves for two years.“
Threatening customer loss
Large business customers of both banks are said to have auditioned by bank chiefs Christian Sewing and Martin Zielke. They too were rather skeptical.
Dieter Hein, bank analyst at Fair Research, even warned of customer losses:
„There are quite a number of customers who consciously choose one or the other bank, or have accounts with both, and if the institutions would go together, then surely customers would leave the combined company.“
Possible merger candidates
What’s happening now? The stock market would not be the stock exchange if new speculation did not immediately come to the table. „For Commerzbank, I see Unicredit as an interesting point of contact, ING and Coba are just as conceivable, BNP Paribas is also another player, which will be interesting to see who ultimately Commerzbank incorporated,“ says Nieding.
And at Deutsche Bank? Nieding does not believe in a big merger in the short term. „What we’ll see are maybe mergers within the bank as a whole, for example with DWS, which is being heavily courted, and I see that sooner.“
Swiss UBS is to talk to Deutsche Bank about linking its own asset management with Deutsche Bank subsidiary DWS.
However, such speculations are currently not impulsive. Although the share price of Deutsche Bank shot up once, hours later, but both shares are clearly in the red.